Probability of Falling Aircraft Trajectory Angle and Recurrence of Aircraft Falls

Authors:

Бирбраер Адольф Никитич Birbraer Adolf N.
Candidate of Science (Phd), Associate prof.

doctor of technical sciences, professor of the Higher school of industrial, civil and road construction, Institute of civil engineering, Peter the Great

St. Petersburg polytechnic university

Chernukha N.
инженер-проектировщик

Rubric: Theoretical and experimental studies
Annotation:
The article is devoted to the determination of the probability characteristics of the parameters that are necessary for the safety analysis of nuclear power plant (NPP) when airplane falls on it. Probability distribution (probability density and cumulative function) of an aircraft trajectory angle with the vertical was found via processing of the world statistics of aircraft accidents. Recurrence of aircraft falls within the bounds of standard area was obtained by means of analysis of aircraft accident protocols with airplanes of general aviation in the United States. These data can be used when designing of NPPs in Russia.

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