Vladimir A. Smirnov
Cand. Sci. (Engineering), associate professor of structural and technical mechanics department, Moscow State University of Civil Engineering. Moscow, Russian Federation
e-mail: belohvost@list.ru
Publications
Modeling of the uncertainty of statistical data by p-boxes in the analysis of the reliability of building roof structures
Issue: #4-2024
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The article describes a problem of uncertainty modeling of statistical
data in the problems of structural reliability analysis. There are elements of
subjectivity in decisions making about the type of distribution of a random
variable and its parameters on the analysis of the results of numerical
experiments and real tests of control samples of steel on yield strength. As an
alternative to the cumulative distribution function it is proposed to use p-box
as a model of a random variable. The new type of a p-box is proposed on the
basis of the Dvoretzky–Kiefer–Wolfowitz inequality, which allows to form the
area of possible cumulative distribution functions without base on classical
probability distributions. By the example of reliability analysis of a steel
structural element, the variants of using different p-boxes are shown depending
on the available statistical data. The probability of no-failure is presented
in interval form based on p-boxes. If the result of reliability analysis by the
lower boundary does not allow to make a decision about the safety level of a
structural element, two options are possible: to reduce the uncertainty of the
data by conducting additional statistical researches or to increase the
cross-sectional area of the structural element.
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